Yesterday , I did a easy rough calculation about Basic Motors to attempt to get at how a lot manufacturing job loss one may attribute to overseas competition versus automation and productivity will increase. Numerous commenters objected that my assumptions have been too simplistic, notably in neglecting the home content material in foreign autos and the significance of shifts within the provide chain over time.
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You’ll be able to see the rise in imports from much lower than 1% within the 1960s to about 2% of US GDP in the mid 2000s (till the great recession hit). The opposite attention-grabbing issue is that consumption of autos (as a fraction of the financial system) began a serious decline in the early 2000s. That is going to complicate the analysis which I’ll take up again in the next put up.